✅ Key Points for Easy Understanding:
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Above Normal Rainfall Expected
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IMD predicts India will receive 5% more rainfall than the average 87 cm during June–September 2025.
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This would be the second year in a row with above-normal monsoon rainfall.
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What This Means
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✅ Good for Agriculture: More water for kharif crops like rice and maize.
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✅ Better Water Storage: Reservoirs will be better filled.
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⚠️ Caution: High rainfall in short time can cause flooding in some areas.
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Why Monsoon Might Be Good This Year
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❌ No El Nino: El Nino is linked to less rain. Its absence is good news.
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❄️ Low Eurasian Snow Cover: Less snow in Europe/Asia = more rainfall in India (inverse relation).
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How IMD Forecasts Monsoon
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They use a dynamical, coupled model, combining:
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Ocean data
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Atmosphere data
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Supercomputers simulate future weather patterns
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Ocean and Climate Conditions
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🌊 ENSO is Neutral: Neither El Nino nor La Nina, but atmospheric features lean toward La Nina (good for rainfall).
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🌡️ IOD is Neutral: Not positive, but stable for now. Positive IOD would support more rainfall.
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Where Will It Rain More or Less?
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☔ Above-normal rainfall: Most of India
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🌦️ Below-normal rainfall: Parts of:
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North-West India
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North-East India
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South Peninsular India
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✅ Normal rainfall in the Core Monsoon Zone (central and eastern India)
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Better Accuracy in Forecasts
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Since 2021, IMD’s forecasts are more accurate.
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Forecast error reduced to 2.7%, compared to 7.5% before 2021.
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📚 Explanation of Important Terms:
| Term | Explanation |
|---|---|
| IMD | India Meteorological Department – national weather forecasting body. |
| Kharif Crops | Crops sown in June (rainy season) and harvested in October (e.g., rice, millets). |
| Reservoirs | Water storage systems (lakes/dams) used for irrigation and drinking water. |
| El Nino | Warming of Pacific Ocean – linked to weaker monsoon in India. |
| La Nina | Cooling of Pacific Ocean – linked to stronger monsoon in India. |
| ENSO | El Nino-Southern Oscillation – a climate pattern that includes both El Nino & La Nina. |
| IOD | Indian Ocean Dipole – temperature difference in Indian Ocean affecting Indian rainfall. |
| Eurasian Snow Cover | Snow in Europe & Asia – less snow = more rainfall in India. |
| Dynamical Coupled Model | Climate model using ocean + atmosphere data for better forecasting. |
| Core Monsoon Zone | Central & eastern India – mainly agriculture-based, heavily depends on monsoon. |
❓ FAQ: Indian Monsoon
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What is the monsoon season in India?
➤ The Indian monsoon season lasts from June to September, and it provides nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall. -
Why is monsoon important for India?
➤ It is essential for agriculture, water supply, and electricity generation (via hydro-power). -
What are kharif crops?
➤ Crops that are sown with the onset of monsoon (June) and harvested in October. Examples: rice, maize, cotton. -
What happens if rainfall is below normal?
➤ It may lead to drought, crop failure, water shortage, and reduced food production. -
What is the role of El Nino and La Nina?
➤ El Nino weakens monsoon.
➤ La Nina strengthens monsoon.
➤ Neutral ENSO has mixed effects. -
Can monsoon cause floods?
➤ Yes. Intense, heavy rainfall in short time can lead to flooding, especially in cities or low-lying areas.
📝 MCQ for Practice
Q: Which of the following is not true about the Indian monsoon forecast for 2025?
A. IMD expects 5% above normal rainfall this year
B. El Nino is active and will bring heavy rains
C. Low Eurasian snow cover may lead to more rainfall
D. Forecast accuracy has improved since 2021
